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Identifying Changes in Bicycle Accident Trends Using GIS and Time Series Information in the City of Zürich

Fig. 1: Accident numbers from Zurich between 2004 and 2018 © Bryan Adey, ETH Zurich

Clemens Kielhauser, Julia S. Herrmann, Bryan T. Adey
2020
Article online

This paper presents a case study based on accident reports from the Zurich City Police. Using a joint GIS and time series analysis based on negative binomial regression, the data is analyzed to identify trends in accident development for several accident subgroups (e.g., bicycle accidents, senior citizen accidents, e-bike accidents) and specific locations.

In order to be effective, road safety officers must have a complete overview of the accidents in their area of responsibility, including information pertaining to the location and severity of the accidents, and how the number of accidents are developing over time. Ideally, this information is stored in a Geographic Information System (GIS) enabled database, which helps to facilitate data processing and analysis, which enables improved understanding of the reasons for the accidents and the proposals of how to improve road safety. This paper presents a case study based on accident reports from the Zurich City Police. Using a joint GIS and time series analysis based on negative binomial regression, the data is analyzed to identify trends in accident development for several accident subgroups (e.g., bicycle accidents, senior citizen accidents, e-bike accidents) and specific locations. The subgroup of bicycle accidents will be discussed in more detail. The time series analysis is corrected for exposure (e.g., the increasing number of e-bikes) and forecasts the number of accidents which are likely to occur in the future. Significantly higher numbers of accidents than those expected serve as an early warning that further investigation, leading to possible interventions, is required. The case study shows that with this information, it is possible to identify both geographical areas and accident subgroups that have deviating patterns in accident numbers, and should be further investigated. For bicycle accidents, 4 out of 12 districts exceed the average accident trend by over 95% and 3 districts have an accident number that is over 10% higher than that district’s forecast, with the highest being 33% above the already increasing accident trend. Other accident subgroups are presented in summary form. The results of the analysis allow consistent and automated analysis across all potential areas for improving road safety, helping to focus the efforts of road safety managers on those areas where their efforts are most effective.

In: Special Issue: Advances in Road Safety Planning, in Frontiers in Sustainable Cities – Governance and Cities, 2, Article 21, DOI: 10.3389/frsc.2020.00021.

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This article has been published in the following newsletter edition:

48 | Dezember 2020: Communication | Mediation

  • Bringing the Land Back into the City – Possibilities for Ecological Transition in Geneva
  • Generationenwohnen – von Erfahrungen innovativer Wohnprojekte lernen
  • Exploring Urban Scale Models
  • Communicating Railway Delays and Adjusted Timetables: the Role of Incomplete Information to Passengers in Railway Operations
  • Von San Francisco bis Moskau. Der Botanische Garten Zürich als ein Drehkreuz im globalen Pflanzenhandel des 19. Jahrhunderts
  • Participatory Multi-objective Optimization for Planning Dense and Green Cities
Kurzmeldungen
  • Projektstart: Digitale Nachbarschaften
  • Neue Gastdozentin Landschaftsarchitektur: Maren Brakebusch
  • Aktualisierung Raum+ Kanton Obwalden
  • 3D DSS for Supporting the Planning of Electric Power Systems
Publikationen
  • The Impact of Vertical Densification on Public Lighting in Informal Settlements: Using Virtual Environments as an Evaluation Tool for Policy Making
  • MaaS Bundle Design
  • Projektdokumentation Jugendjobbörse Winterthur
  • Rewriting Architecture 10+1 Actions: Tabula Scripta
  • Transforming Knowledge Systems for Life on Earth: Visions of Future Systems and how to get there
  • Sustainable Funding Strategies for Stormwater Infrastructure Management: A System Dynamics Model
  • Considering Automated Vehicle Deployment Uncertainty in the Design of Optimal Parking Garages Using Real Options
  • Identifying Changes in Bicycle Accident Trends Using GIS and Time Series Information in the City of Zürich
  • Densification Processes in Comparison: Alexandra and Marlboro South
  • disP 56/3, September 2020
Weiterbildung | Studiengänge
  • Master of Advanced Studies ETH EPFL in Urban and Territorial Design
  • Master of Advanced Studies ETH in Raumplanung 2021/23
  • CAS/DAS Verkehrsingenieurwesen ab Herbst 2021
  • Master of Science ETH in Landschaftsarchitektur
  • Master of Advanced Studies ETH in Housing
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  • ZÜRICH 1980. Bewegter Alltag: Fotografien von Gertrud Vogler / Poetische Provokationen: Die Sprache der Bewegung
  • The Things Around Us

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Prof. Dr. Bryan T. Adey
Prof. Dr. Kay W. Axhausen
Prof. Dr. Tom Avermaete
Prof. Maria Conen
Prof. Dr. Francesco Corman
Dr. Jennifer Duyne Barenstein
Prof. Teresa Galí-Izard
Prof. Dr. Adrienne Grêt-Regamey
Prof. Dr. Guillaume Habert
Prof. Dr. Eva Heinen
Prof. Damian Jerjen
Prof. Dr. David Kaufmann
Prof. Hubert Klumpner
Dr. Anastasios Kouvelas
Prof. Freek Persyn
Prof. Dr. Christian Schmid
Prof. Milica Topalovic
Prof. Martina Voser

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